The aims of this paper are to compute the risks of dying of ischemic heart disease (IHD), lung cancer (LC), stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for Italian smokers by gender, age and daily number of cigarettes smoked, and to estimate the benefit of stopping smoking in terms of risk reduction.
Life tables by sex and smoking status were computed for each smoking-related disease based on Italian smoking data, and risk charts with 10-year probabilities of death were computed for never, current and former smokers.
Men aged 45-49 years, current smokers, have a 8, 10, 3 and 1 in 1,000 chance of dying of IHD, LC, stroke and COPD, respectively, whereas women with the same characteristics have a 2, 6, 3 and 1 in 1,000 chance, respectively, for all smokers combined, i.e., independent of the smoking intensity. The risk reduction rates from quitting smoking are remarkable: a man who quits smoking at 45-49 years can reduce the risk of dying of IHD, LC, stroke and COPD in the next 10 years by 43%, 53%, 57% and 55%, respectively; a woman by 49%, 49%, 59% and 57%, respectively.
Estimates of risk reduction by quitting smoking are useful to provide a sounder scientific basis for public health messages and clinical advice.
Tumori 2015; 101(6): 657 - 663
Article Type: ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
AuthorsGiulia Carreras, Francesco Pistelli, Franco Falcone, Laura Carrozzi, Andrea Martini, Giovanni Viegi, Giuseppe Gorini
- • Accepted on 13/03/2015
- • Available online on 12/06/2015
- • Published in print on 14/11/2015
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- Carreras, Giulia [PubMed] [Google Scholar] 1, * Corresponding Author (firstname.lastname@example.org)
- Pistelli, Francesco [PubMed] [Google Scholar] 2, 3
- Falcone, Franco [PubMed] [Google Scholar] 4
- Carrozzi, Laura [PubMed] [Google Scholar] 2, 3
- Martini, Andrea [PubMed] [Google Scholar] 1
- Viegi, Giovanni [PubMed] [Google Scholar] 3, 5
- Gorini, Giuseppe [PubMed] [Google Scholar] 1
Unit of Environmental & Occupational Epidemiology, Cancer Prevention & Research Institute (ISPO), Florence - Italy
Pulmonary Unit, Cardiothoracic and Vascular Department, University Hospital of Pisa, Cisanello (Pisa) - Italy
Unit of Pulmonary Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, Italian National Research Council (IFC-CNR), Pisa - Italy
Italian Association of Hospital Pulmonologists (AIPO) Research, Milan - Italy
Institute of Biomedicine and Molecular Immunology, Italian National Research Council (IBIM-CNR), Palermo - Italy