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ESTIMATED AND OBSERVED CANCER INCIDENCE IN ITALY: A VALIDATION STUDY

Abstract

Aims and background: The study aimed to validate model-based incidence estimates by means of observed incidence rates provided by Italian cancer registries, for five major cancer sites (stomach, colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate cancers) and for all cancers together.Methods: Recent incidence rates observed by Italian population- based cancer registries were extracted from the data base of the Italian Association of Cancer Registries. Regional estimates of incidence rates for the same cancers were obtained by the MIAMOD method. Observed and estimated crude incidence rates and incidence trends were compared for the period of diagnosis 1985-2000. Eight Italian cancer registries and seven regions were selected for the analysis since they had incidence data available during the entire selected period.Results and conclusions: An excellent agreement between estimated and observed crude incidence rates was found for all single cancer sites, regarding absolute incidence levels and time trends. A partial exception was breast, where empirical data showed a sudden increase in the last three years of observation, perhaps due to organized screenings in some Italian regions, and not captured by statistical models. Substantial underestimation of model-based incidence rates was found for all cancers combined, where the difference tended to increase with calendar year, up to a maximum of 20% in recent years. The greatest part of the discrepancy can be attributed to multiple cancers, which were included in cancer registries statistics but were not accounted for in MIAMOD estimates.

Tumori 2007; 97(4): 387 - 391

Article Type: ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Authors

Riccardo Capocaccia, Carlotta Buzzoni, Enrico Grande, Riccardo Inghelmann, Francesco Bellù, Tiziana Cassetti, Margherita de Dottori, Andrea Donato, Vincenzo De Lisi, Fabio Falcini, Massimo Federico, Stefano Ferretti, Mario Fusco, Adriano Giacomin, Stefano Guzzinati, Lucia Mangone, Silvano Piffer, Stefano Rosso, Ornella Sechi, Giovanna Tagliabue, Rosario Tumino, Marina Vercelli, Susanna Vitarelli

Article History

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Authors

  • Capocaccia, Riccardo [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Reparto di Epidemiologia dei Tumori, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
  • Buzzoni, Carlotta [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Centro per lo Studio e la Prevenzione Oncologica, Regione Toscana, Florence, Italy
  • Grande, Enrico [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Reparto di Epidemiologia dei Tumori, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
  • Inghelmann, Riccardo [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Reparto di Epidemiologia dei Tumori, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
  • Bellù, Francesco [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Registro Tumori dell’Alto Adige - Tumorregister Sudtirol, Ospedale di Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy
  • Cassetti, Tiziana [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Registro Tumori Umbro di Popolazione, Università di Perugia, Perugia, Italy
  • de Dottori, Margherita [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Registro Tumori del Friuli- Venezia Giulia, Agenzia regionale della sanità, Udine, Italy
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    Registro Tumori della Provincia di Salerno, Salerno, Italy
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    Registro Tumori della Provincia di Parma, UO Oncologia, Agenzia ospedaliera, Università di Parma, Parma, Italy
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    Registro Tumori della Romagna, Ospedale GB Morgagni, Forlì, Italy
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    Registro Tumori della Provincia di Modena, Centro Oncologico Modenese, Azienda Ospedaliera Policlinico di Modena, Modena, Italy
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    Registro Tumori della Provincia di Ferrara, Università di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
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    Registro Tumori di Popolazione della Regione Campania, c/o ASL NA4, Naples, Italy
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    Registro Tumori Piemonte, Provincia di Biella, Biella, Italy
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    Registro Tumori del Veneto, Istituto Oncologico Veneto, Università degli studi di Padova, Padua, Italy
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    Registro Tumori Reggiano, Azienda USL di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
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    Registro Tumori della Provincia di Trento, Azienda provinciale per i servizi sanitari, Trento, Italy
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    Registro Tumori Piemonte, Città di Torino, Turin
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    Registri Tumori della Provincia di Sassari ASL1-Sardegna, Sassari, Italy
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    Registro Tumori Lombardia, Fondazione IRCCS “Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy
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    UOS Registro Tumori della Provincia di Ragusa, Azienda ospedaliera “MP Arezzo”, Ragusa, Italy
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    Registro Tumori della Regione Liguria, SS Epidemiologia Descrittiva IST, DISSAL, Università di Genova, Genoa, Italy
  • Vitarelli, Susanna [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
    Registro Tumori della Provincia di Macerata, Università di Camerino, Camerino (Macerata), Italy

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